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🔬 DISCOVER PAIRS

Statistical Arbitrage for the ASX

Professional-grade pair trading tools that democratize institutional strategies. Identify cointegrated pairs, track divergence, and execute market-neutral trades with confidence.

🎯 Active Trading Signals

Pairs with |z-score| ≥ 2.0 showing strong mean reversion opportunities

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📊 All Tracked Pairs

Monitor all pairs for correlation, cointegration, and potential opportunities

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BHP / RIO TINTO
Iron Ore & Diversified Mining Giants
ACTIVE SIGNAL
Pearson Correlation
0.94
Very strong positive correlation over 12 months. Prices move together 94% of the time.
Cointegration (ADF)
p = 0.003
Highly cointegrated. Spread is stationary and mean-reverting.
Current Z-Score
+2.3σ
Spread is 2.3 standard deviations above mean. Strong reversion signal.
Mean Spread
$6.42
Historical average price difference between BHP and RIO.
Half-Life
8.3 days
Expected time for spread to revert to 50% of current deviation.
Win Rate (Backtest)
68%
Historical success rate at Z-score > 2.0 over 3 years.

📊 Trade Rationale

  • Why this pair works: BHP and Rio Tinto are both major iron ore exporters with highly correlated revenues tied to commodity prices and Chinese demand
  • Current divergence: BHP has outperformed RIO by 2.3 standard deviations, likely due to short-term market sentiment or news specific to one company
  • Expected outcome: As fundamental value converges, expect BHP to underperform and/or RIO to outperform, closing the spread
  • Risk factors: Commodity price shock, company-specific news (production issues, M&A), or fundamental business model change

📰 Latest Market News

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News updates every 15 minutes • Source: ASX Market Announcements & Financial News

Position Size Calculator

Calculate market-neutral positions with equal dollar values

Market Status
● NEUTRAL
Calculated Positions
Market Neutral Strategy
🟢 LONG POSITION
588 shares
$25,000.00
🔴 SHORT POSITION
211 shares
$25,000.00
Net Exposure: $0 ✓
Est. Brokerage: $60
Total Capital: $50,060
Capital Used: 100%

⚠️ Important Considerations

  • Short selling access: Requires margin account and stock borrowing. Interactive Brokers is most accessible for ASX retail traders.
  • Hedge ratio: 1:1 dollar matching. Advanced: adjust based on beta/volatility differences.
  • Total costs: Brokerage + short fees (1-5% p.a.) + slippage. Factor these into expected returns.
  • Risk management: Set stop-loss at z-score > 3.0. Monitor for fundamental changes that break correlation.
  • Capital efficiency: Uses 50% buying power for each leg. Margin requirements may vary by broker.

Understanding Pair Trading on the ASX

What is Pair Trading?

Pair trading is a market-neutral strategy that profits from the relative performance of two correlated securities. Instead of betting on whether the market goes up or down, you bet on whether two related stocks will converge or diverge in price.

When historically correlated stocks (like BHP and Rio Tinto) temporarily move apart in price, we take opposite positions: buy (long) the underperforming stock and sell (short) the outperforming one. When they return to their normal relationship, we profit.

Key Statistical Concepts

Correlation (ρ)

Measures how two stocks move together. Values range from -1 to +1. For pair trading, we want ρ > 0.80 (strong positive correlation). Example: If BHP and RIO have ρ = 0.94, they move in the same direction 94% of the time.

Cointegration (ADF Test)

More important than correlation! Tests if the price spread between two stocks is stationary (mean-reverting). p-value < 0.05 means the pair is cointegrated and likely to revert to historical relationship. This is what makes the trade work.

Z-Score

Measures how far the current spread is from its mean, in standard deviations. Entry signals typically occur at |Z| > 2.0. Exit when spread returns to mean (Z ≈ 0). A Z-score of +2.3 means the spread is 2.3σ above average.

How to Interpret the Signals

LONG A / SHORT B Signal

Stock A is undervalued relative to Stock B (z-score < -2.0). Action: Buy Stock A, Sell Stock B. Expected: The spread will widen as A outperforms or B underperforms.

SHORT A / LONG B Signal

Stock A is overvalued relative to Stock B (z-score > 2.0). Action: Sell Stock A, Buy Stock B. Expected: The spread will narrow as A underperforms or B outperforms.

NEUTRAL Signal

Spread is within normal range (-2 < z-score < 2). Action: Wait for opportunity or close existing positions. Monitor for divergence.

ASX Short Selling Regulations

  • Naked shorting is banned: You must have a securities lending arrangement before selling short
  • Reporting requirements: Positions > $100K and > 0.01% of shares must be reported to ASIC within T+3
  • Broker requirements: Many retail brokers don't offer short selling. Interactive Brokers is the most accessible option
  • Costs: Expect to pay 1-5% annually in stock borrowing fees, plus normal brokerage on both legs

Best ASX Sectors for Pair Trading

✓ Excellent

  • • Big 4 Banks (CBA, NAB, WBC, ANZ)
  • • Major Miners (BHP, RIO, FMG)
  • • Grocery Retailers (WOW, COL)
  • • Gold Miners (NST, EVN, NCM)

⚠ Moderate

  • • Telecom (TLS vs TPG)
  • • REITs (sector-specific pairs)
  • • Energy (WPL, STO, ORG)
  • • Healthcare (CSL, RMD, COH)

✗ Difficult

  • • Tech stocks (low correlation)
  • • Small caps (liquidity issues)
  • • Spec miners (high volatility)
  • • Biotech (binary outcomes)

Risk Management Best Practices

1. Position Sizing

Never risk more than 2-5% of your portfolio on a single pair. Use equal dollar amounts for both legs to maintain market neutrality.

2. Stop Losses

Exit if z-score exceeds ±3.0 (spread continues widening). This prevents catastrophic losses if the relationship breaks down.

3. Diversification

Trade multiple pairs across different sectors. Don't concentrate all positions in one industry (e.g., only banks).

4. Monitor Fundamentals

Statistical relationships can break due to M&A, regulatory changes, or business model shifts. Stay informed about company news.